The UGA you got into is not the UGA your child is applying to.
Sixty-six years of UGA’s own admissions numbers — including the year it went from below the national average to 280 points above it — and a tool that puts your year against your student’s.
Fall 1960 against Fall 2025, the most recent class UGA has filed. The class of 2030, announced this spring, runs tighter still: roughly 3 in 10 of the people who applied were admitted. The SAT figure is UGA’s mean against the national mean that year — 53 years of it, 1961 to 2024, with several years UGA published no mean at all. Raw scores cannot be compared across that span, because the test was recentred in 1995 and rebuilt in 2016, but UGA and the national mean were rescaled together, so the gap between them survives both breaks.
Every year UGA has published, Fall 1960 to Fall 2025, with no gaps. Each Fact Book edition carries a rolling ten-year table, so editions a decade apart overlap and chain into one continuous series; where two editions disagree, the later filing wins. Fall 2005 and Fall 2025 have no Fact Book table and come from UGA’s Common Data Set for those years instead, checked against the men’s and women’s rows that sum to them. Both sources are published by UGA’s Office of Institutional Research. Nothing is interpolated. The red line is applications, the black line is offers of admission, and the shaded band between them is everyone turned away — offers did rise over these sixty-six years, but never close to as fast. The dashed reach at the right is the class of 2030, which UGA has announced but not yet filed; it is drawn because it is the class families are asking about, and excluded from every calculation on this page. The four marks: UGA admitted its first Black students, Hamilton Holmes and Charlayne Hunter, by court order in January 1961; the HOPE Scholarship began in 1993; the Eleventh Circuit struck down UGA’s race-conscious admissions in Johnson v. Board of Regents in 2001; and for the Fall 2021 cycle UGA accepted the Common Application for the first time and made tests optional for that one year. Scores were required again from Fall 2022 and applications stayed high — which suggests the Common App, not test-optional, is what moved the line.
What it takes now.
The middle half of the class, and the median, on each measure.
Two different bases, on purpose: the SAT figures describe the students who enrolled (UGA’s Common Data Set, Fall 2025); the GPA figures describe the students UGA admitted (Class of 2030), on UGA’s own recalculated scale, which counts core academic courses only and can exceed 4.0. A quarter of the class sits below each shaded band and a quarter above it. These are not cut-offs.
The year you applied.
Or your graduation year, minus four. Nothing is sent anywhere.
Where the admissions rate is heading.
The last ten years and the next ten. Fitted on every year since the series changed regime, then shown from 2014 so the part you are living in is legible.
The black line is what UGA has published; the red is the projection, carried forward from the last published year at the fitted rate, with a 90% prediction interval behind it. The fit uses all 25 years since the 2001 break — the year the series changed regime, which a Chow test puts beyond doubt at F = 30.0 against critical values of 3.15 and 4.98. Across those years the rate has fallen 1.30 points a year (R² 0.850). The filled dot is UGA’s announced class of 2030 at 29.8%, which is not in the fit — it is there as a check, and it already sits below the fitted line. Ten years is a long way to carry any trend, and the width of the band is the honest statement of that: by 2035 it spans most of the plausible range. Read the direction, not the decimal.
One thing none of this can tell you.
What score you needed. The SAT was rescaled in 1995 and rebuilt in 2016, so a 1200 in 1985, in 2005 and today are three different achievements, and no honest line runs across those breaks. Current score targets are on the scores guide.
The working.
How the projection was built, and whether it holds up against a year it was never shown.
How the break was found. Four candidates were fitted to all sixty-six years of applications and compared on information criteria rather than on R², since adding parameters always raises R². Two things are easy to get wrong here and are done properly: a model fitted to the logarithm of applicants is a different object from one fitted to applicants, so the log models carry the Jacobian correction that puts all four on one scale and makes the numbers comparable at all; and the parameter count charges for everything estimated, including the error variance and the break years themselves, which were found by searching every possible split rather than assumed. Without that charge a break always looks free. Lower AIC and BIC are better; k is that parameter count. DW is the Durbin–Watson statistic: 2 means independent residuals, and lower means the errors are correlated year to year. R² is reported within each model’s own scale and is not what chose the winner.
| Model | k | R² | AIC | BIC | DW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear, level | 3 | 0.764 | 1318.7 | 1325.3 | 0.12 |
| Log-linear | 3 | 0.957 | 1162.7 | 1169.3 | 0.33 |
| Log-linear, break 2001 | 6 | 0.978 | 1124.1 | 1137.2 | 0.61 |
| Log-linear, breaks 1969 + 2001 | 9 | 0.987 | 1096.7 | 1116.4 | 1.00 |
The two-break model wins on both criteria even after paying for its extra parameters and its searched break years, and the 2001 break it finds is what sets the twenty-five-year window the admissions-rate projection above is fitted on.
Does it survive a year it has never seen? The model is fitted only on years UGA has filed, through Fall 2025. UGA has since announced its Class of 2030 result, which makes an honest out-of-sample test. PI is the prediction interval — the range the model said the answer should fall in:
| Fall 2026 | Predicted | 90% PI | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Applicants | 45,205 | 38,068 – 53,681 | ~51,600 | Inside |
| Admit rate | 36.8% | 29.2% – 44.5% | ~29.8% | Inside |
Both landed inside the band, which is the most this kind of test can say for a model. The rate still came in 7 points below the central estimate, near the bottom of the interval, so the bias has a direction worth stating: this model under-predicts how quickly UGA is tightening. Treat the projected rates as the optimistic case.
Every year, as UGA published it — 66 filed, plus the announced class of 2030
| Fall | Applied | Admitted | Rate | Turned away | Mean SAT | vs national | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 2,593 | 2,192 | 84.5% | 401 | — | — | FB 1994 |
| 1961 | 2,835 | 2,220 | 78.3% | 615 | 890 | −79 | FB 1989 |
| 1962 | 3,094 | 2,495 | 80.6% | 599 | 924 | −47 | FB 1994 |
| 1963 | 3,567 | 2,830 | 79.3% | 737 | — | — | FB 1994 |
| 1964 | 3,981 | 3,246 | 81.5% | 735 | — | — | FB 1999 |
| 1965 | 4,685 | 3,873 | 82.7% | 812 | — | — | FB 2000 |
| 1966 | 5,150 | 4,013 | 77.9% | 1,137 | 1020 | +53 | FB 2001 |
| 1967 | 5,207 | 3,691 | 70.9% | 1,516 | 1012 | +54 | FB 2002 |
| 1968 | 5,672 | 4,416 | 77.9% | 1,256 | 1032 | +74 | FB 2002 |
| 1969 | 5,484 | 4,159 | 75.8% | 1,325 | 1046 | +90 | FB 2002 |
| 1970 | 5,600 | 4,291 | 76.6% | 1,309 | 1038 | +90 | FB 2002 |
| 1971 | 5,176 | 3,923 | 75.8% | 1,253 | 1039 | +96 | FB 2002 |
| 1972 | 5,442 | 4,211 | 77.4% | 1,231 | 1019 | +82 | FB 2002 |
| 1973 | 5,141 | 3,925 | 76.3% | 1,216 | 1012 | +86 | FB 2002 |
| 1974 | 5,323 | 4,493 | 84.4% | 830 | 986 | +62 | FB 2002 |
| 1975 | 5,191 | 4,183 | 80.6% | 1,008 | 994 | +88 | FB 2002 |
| 1976 | 5,590 | 4,292 | 76.8% | 1,298 | 999 | +96 | FB 2002 |
| 1977 | 5,530 | 4,290 | 77.6% | 1,240 | 1013 | +114 | FB 2002 |
| 1978 | 6,177 | 4,564 | 73.9% | 1,613 | 1022 | +125 | FB 2002 |
| 1979 | 7,072 | 4,623 | 65.4% | 2,449 | 1028 | +134 | FB 2002 |
| 1980 | 6,716 | 4,597 | 68.4% | 2,119 | 1026 | +136 | FB 2002 |
| 1981 | 7,491 | 5,906 | 78.8% | 1,585 | 1000 | +110 | FB 2002 |
| 1982 | 7,302 | 5,460 | 74.8% | 1,842 | 1026 | +133 | FB 2002 |
| 1983 | 7,504 | 5,430 | 72.4% | 2,074 | 1017 | +124 | FB 2002 |
| 1984 | 7,804 | 5,856 | 75.0% | 1,948 | 1001 | +104 | FB 2002 |
| 1985 | 8,719 | 6,743 | 77.3% | 1,976 | 1012 | +106 | FB 2002 |
| 1986 | 9,778 | 7,460 | 76.3% | 2,318 | 1016 | +110 | FB 2002 |
| 1987 | 10,013 | 7,581 | 75.7% | 2,432 | 1028 | +122 | FB 2002 |
| 1988 | 10,878 | 8,015 | 73.7% | 2,863 | 1033 | +129 | FB 2002 |
| 1989 | 10,683 | 7,422 | 69.5% | 3,261 | 1048 | +145 | FB 2002 |
| 1990 | 9,561 | 7,513 | 78.6% | 2,048 | 1045 | +145 | FB 2002 |
| 1991 | 10,509 | 7,088 | 67.4% | 3,421 | 1060 | +164 | FB 2002 |
| 1992 | 11,363 | 7,304 | 64.3% | 4,059 | 1078 | +179 | FB 2002 |
| 1993 | 11,220 | 7,871 | 70.2% | 3,349 | 1086 | +184 | FB 2002 |
| 1994 | 12,382 | 7,885 | 63.7% | 4,497 | 1084 | +182 | FB 2003 |
| 1995 | 13,401 | 7,935 | 59.2% | 5,466 | 1109 | +199 | FB 2004 |
| 1996 | 12,930 | 7,259 | 56.1% | 5,671 | — | — | FB 2004 |
| 1997 | 11,513 | 8,411 | 73.1% | 3,102 | — | — | FB 2006 |
| 1998 | 12,728 | 8,459 | 66.5% | 4,269 | — | — | FB 2007 |
| 1999 | 13,402 | 8,466 | 63.2% | 4,936 | — | — | FB 2007 |
| 2000 | 12,869 | 7,932 | 61.6% | 4,937 | 1202 | +183 | FB 2009 |
| 2001 | 10,984 | 7,976 | 72.6% | 3,008 | 1207 | +187 | FB 2009 |
| 2002 | 12,786 | 8,340 | 65.2% | 4,446 | 1215 | +195 | FB 2002 |
| 2003 | 11,813 | 8,885 | 75.2% | 2,928 | 1212 | +186 | FB 2011 |
| 2004 | 13,267 | 8,197 | 61.8% | 5,070 | 1233 | +207 | FB 2011 |
| 2005 | 12,326 | 7,982 | 64.8% | 4,344 | 1241 | +213 | CDS 2005-06 |
| 2006 | 15,924 | 9,214 | 57.9% | 6,710 | 1228 | +207 | FB 2014 |
| 2007 | 16,999 | 9,279 | 54.6% | 7,720 | 1233 | +216 | FB 2014 |
| 2008 | 17,326 | 9,625 | 55.6% | 7,701 | 1237 | +220 | FB 2014 |
| 2009 | 17,886 | 9,584 | 53.6% | 8,302 | 1242 | +226 | FB 2014 |
| 2010 | 17,730 | 10,331 | 58.3% | 7,399 | 1239 | +222 | FB 2019 |
| 2011 | 17,823 | 11,170 | 62.7% | 6,653 | 1226 | +215 | FB 2019 |
| 2012 | 18,735 | 10,449 | 55.8% | 8,286 | 1244 | +234 | FB 2019 |
| 2013 | 20,340 | 11,054 | 54.3% | 9,286 | 1249 | +239 | FB 2024 |
| 2014 | 20,918 | 11,655 | 55.7% | 9,263 | 1252 | +242 | FB 2024 |
| 2015 | 21,945 | 11,604 | 52.9% | 10,341 | — | — | FB 2024 |
| 2016 | 22,694 | 12,232 | 53.9% | 10,462 | — | — | FB 2024 |
| 2017 | 24,165 | 13,052 | 54.0% | 11,113 | — | — | FB 2024 |
| 2018 | 26,027 | 12,659 | 48.6% | 13,368 | — | — | FB 2024 |
| 2019 | 29,065 | 13,261 | 45.6% | 15,804 | 1334 | +275 | FB 2024 |
| 2020 | 28,024 | 13,750 | 49.1% | 14,274 | 1318 | +267 | FB 2024 |
| 2021 | 39,090 | 15,689 | 40.1% | 23,401 | 1330 | +280 | FB 2024 |
| 2022 | 39,354 | 16,730 | 42.5% | 22,624 | 1305 | +255 | FB 2024 |
| 2023 | 43,415 | 16,148 | 37.2% | 27,267 | 1307 | +279 | FB 2024 |
| 2024 | 42,436 | 16,092 | 37.9% | 26,344 | 1304 | +280 | FB 2024 |
| 2025 | 47,464 | 16,257 | 34.3% | 31,207 | — | — | CDS 2025-26 |
| 2026 | ~51,600 | ~15,400 | 29.8% | ~36,200 | — | — | Announced |